Metals and Minerals: A new weapon in the quest for global hegemony

Resources: the foundation of technological and energy transitions

Controlling resources: an imperative for sovereignty

The Covid-19 pandemic, recent conflicts, and trade tensions have revealed the fragility of global supply chains. The concentration of production and refining of many critical metals in a few countries, especially China, increases the risks of dependence.

In this arena, China has gained a serious lead² and has implemented a strategy of total integration (mines, smelters, and trade) in copper. It has invested in mines abroad (DRC, Zambia, Indonesia, etc.) to become the leading importer of raw material and now controls 45% of the world’s refined copper.

It has transformed the geopolitical balance of this strategic metal by building dominance through massive investment in modern smelters, enabling it to absorb strong refining demand thanks to a competitive workforce and more permissive environmental standards.

Faced with this vulnerability, major powers are waking up and multiplying their strategies: reshoring refining capacity, diversifying supply sources, building strategic stockpiles, and developing recycling. The United States has launched the Inflation Reduction Act³ ($369 billion for energy/climate) and the CHIPS Act³ ($52 billion for semiconductors) and invested $675 million in critical mineral production in 2022 (US Department of Energy, 2022). Europe, which is far behind on the issue and imports 98% of its rare earths from China, launched the Critical Raw Materials Act³ in 2023, aiming for:

• at least 10% of the EU’s annual consumption from extraction
• at least 40% of the EU’s annual consumption from processing
• at least 25% of the EU’s annual consumption from recycling
   

Gold and precious metals: pillars of resilience and diversification

Among metals, gold occupies a unique place in the strategies of states and investors. Considered the ultimate safe-haven asset, it attracts central banks massively, especially in times of uncertainty. In 2025, central banks bought around 860 tones of gold, according to the World Gold Council, after buying more than 1,000 tones per year over the previous three years (2022–2024)⁴. China, Turkey, India, and Poland were among the biggest buyers, seeking to diversify their reserves and reduce their dependence on the US dollar. This demand from central banks, although slower in recent months, continues, especially among emerging countries.

This rush into gold can be explained by several factors:

• Geopolitical tensions (the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, pressure on Venezuela, Greenland, etc.), which increase the appeal of tangible and safe assets.
• Economic concerns about the public debt of major powers and the risk of monetary devaluation that could follow.
• De-dollarization of the global economy, and weakness in the dollar linked to D. Trump’s policies.

In institutional portfolios, gold is therefore regaining its full relevance: its low, or even negative, correlation with other asset classes makes it an essential diversification tool, particularly in an environment marked by uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks.
 

Strategic Resources: A Lever of Hegemony, Tensions, and Alliances in the New World Order

Control over the value chains of strategic metals confers unprecedented power, generating both tensions and alliances on the international stage.In 2024, China controlled around 70% of global rare earth production and nearly 85% of global refining capacity.⁵

In the past, it has used this leverage on several occasions:

In 2010, it temporarily suspended its rare earth exports to Japan during a diplomatic dispute, causing a surge in global prices.
In 2023, China imposed export restrictions on gallium and germanium, two metals essential for electronics and defense, leading to a 20% increase in prices within a few weeks.⁶

These decisions illustrate how control over resources can become a geopolitical weapon, used to exert pressure and gain leverage on the international stage.

Faced with this “weaponization” of resources, the United States and Europe are responding:

• The United States has classified 50 minerals as “critical” and invested $675 million in 2022 in domestic production and refining (US Department of Energy, 2022). It is multiplying partnerships with Canada, Australia, and Latin America to secure supply.
• Europe launched the Critical Raw Materials Act in 2023 and is seeking to diversify its sources, particularly in Africa and South America.

This global competition is generating tensions:

• Risk of market fragmentation: each restriction or embargo can disrupt global supply chains.
• Race for strategic alliances: the multiplication of bilateral agreements, cross-investments, and strategic stockpiling.
• Pressure on producer countries: these countries become arenas of rivalry between major powers, which seek to secure access to resources through investments, development aid, or trade agreements.

A dominant position makes it possible to impose export controls to gain geopolitical advantage. China has thus introduced complex rules requiring foreign companies to provide detailed information on the final use of materials, allowing the government to gain visibility into the industrial and strategic needs of other countries. More recently, it suspended certain exports to the US in retaliation for American restrictions on semiconductors (including bans on exporting critical HBM chips for AI, chip manufacturing tools, etc.).

In this context, control over strategic resources becomes the key to independence, resilience, and hegemony in this new world order. States that are able to anticipate, secure, and enhance the value of these resources will be the true winners of the next decade.
 

So, what should we take away from this?

Strategic metals and minerals are no longer simple raw materials: they have become the material foundation of the major transitions of the 21st century. Their control will almost certainly shape the independence, security, and power of nations. In a fragmented world, marked by rivalry between powers and rising risks, the race for resources is emerging as the new battlefield of international hegemony.

Beyond these elements, the current environment for gold and natural resources remains influenced by shifts in market sentiment and rising interest rates, while concerns about inflation persist. 
We think that mining companies, for their part, should continue to show resilience and maintain healthy margins⁸, even in a context of high energy prices. Finally, natural resources indices have outperformed global indices since the beginning of the year⁹, illustrating the strategic role of critical minerals and energy in today’s asset allocation.

For these reasons, we believe that we may be on the verge of a new super-cycle for natural resources. The acceleration of decarbonization, the energy transition, electrification, and digitalization should constitute additional demand drivers, alongside those already in place in a context where tensions are already tangible.

At CPR Asset Management, our deep expertise in the natural resources theme enables us to identify and capture these opportunities for our clients. For 40 years¹⁰, we have offered comprehensive exposure to natural resources, gold mining companies, and advanced commodities. Today, these strategies represent more than €4.5 billion in assets under management¹⁰, illustrating our commitment and recognized expertise in this segment.

We actively manage solutions focused on critical materials and remain highly attentive to this activity, notably through constant interactions with companies and sector analysts. We continually seek to understand and anticipate trends, geopolitical challenges, and innovations aiming the most appropriate allocations.
 

1- Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, International Energy Agency (IEA)
2 - UNCTAD, World Trade Report, 2025
3 - World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2024, January 2026
4 - USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024
5 - European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act, March 2023
6 - Reuters, “China’s export curbs on gallium, germanium”, July 2023
7 - Critical Raw Materials Alliance, “Investment in EU mining”, 2023
8 - S&P Global Market Intelligence, Gold Mining Industry Q1 2025 Review, March 2025
9 - CPRAM as of 28/04/2026, comparison of the S&P Global Natural Resources vs MSCI World indices
10 - CPRAM as of 31/03/2026, the fund LCL ACTIONS RESSOURCES NATURELLES was created in 1983