Effective date: 31/07/2026The month of July 2026 was marked by the end of negotiations and the resumption of hostilities between Iran and the United States. As a result, the price of Brent crude rose sharply in the first part of the month, reaching $100 per barrel, before slightly decreasing at the very end of the month to $89. Ultimately, its increase was 22% over the month, the largest rise since March.
The erratic movement of inflation indices reflects the volatility of oil prices. In the United States, headline inflation surprised significantly to the downside for June, at 3.5%, partly due to lower energy prices that month but also thanks to a clear and widespread decline in core inflation. Conversely, inflation surprised to the upside in the eurozone in July, at 2.9%, due to the rebound in oil prices.
Overall, business surveys are consistent with a moderate pace of growth. In the eurozone, the composite PMI rose from 50 to 51.9, thanks to an improvement in manufacturing but especially in services, thus returning to its highest level since the outbreak of the war in Iran. Moreover, GDP growth in Q2 came in at +0.4% quarter-on-quarter. In the United States, both the ISM manufacturing and services surveys declined slightly in June (to 53.4 and 54, respectively) but remain consistent with a growth rate of around 2%. The June employment report was not good and cast doubt on the previous three reports, which had been much better than expected. In particular, the private sector excluding healthcare returned to job losses. In Japan, PMI surveys remain well oriented with 54.7 for manufacturing and 51.9 for services. China, on the other hand, continues to stand out negatively, and the deterioration in the economic situation worsened over the month, with the composite PMI falling to its lowest level since 2022.
Several major central banks held their monetary policy meetings in July, but none decided to change their interest rate policy. The ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% but opened the door to a hike in September, in response to renewed tensions in energy prices. The Bank of Japan left its main policy rate at 1% but was quite assertive about a forthcoming tightening. For its part, the Fed did not change its policy rates but was satisfied with the rise in bond yields since the previous meeting, in direct reaction to economic developments. Most notably, it confirmed a radical change in its communication regime: it will provide significantly less guidance than in the past. This therefore also implies a regime change for the bond market.