Effective date: 30/09/2026September 2026 was marked by the return of major central banks to monetary tightening: within the space of a week, the ECB, the Fed, and the BoJ all raised their key interest rates by 25 basis points, which is a first for these three central banks in the same month. This move occurred in a context of high energy prices. Indeed, the conflict between Iran and the United States intensified again at the beginning of the month, with attacks on both sides against ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil thus crossed back above the $100 mark on September 9, for the first time since July, before retreating slightly to end the month up 16% at $104.
Bond yields rose sharply over the month, due to the combined effect of rising oil prices and monetary tightening. The US 10-year yield gained about 50 basis points over the month, ending around 5.28%, its highest level since 2007. The German 10-year yield rose about 25 basis points to 3.55%, after reaching its highest level since 2009. In Japan, the 10-year yield crossed the 3% mark for the first time since 1996, finishing the month at 3.02%. Finally, gold was penalized by rising real interest rates and lost about 6% over the month, erasing much of its August gains.
Equity markets stalled in September, penalized by the rise in long-term rates. The S&P 500 ended the month roughly unchanged (down about 0.8%), while the financial sector significantly underperformed (down 7.3% over the month, its worst monthly performance since March 2023). The Eurostoxx 600 fell by 2.5%, marking its first monthly decline in six months. The Nikkei rose 0.7% over the month but recorded its first quarterly decline since early 2025. Finally, the MSCI Emerging Markets index slightly declined (down 0.8%), notably penalized by the Korean and Chinese markets.
Food for Generations declined over the month. The Water and Waste sector remained stable thanks to the strong rise of life-science tool manufacturers such as Agilent and Thermo Fisher, offset by declines in industrial stocks like Pentair and utilities (American Water Works). The Food Retail sector was penalized by declines in US Foods and Sysco, two companies supplying restaurants, mainly in the United States. The Agriculture sector declined in a context of a slight drop in grain prices after several months of significant increases. Agricultural machinery ended the month up (Deere, CNH Industrial) thanks to a rebound in demand, but fertilizers (Mosaic) and agricultural services (Bunge) fell significantly. Food Products fell sharply (Danone, Novonesis, Glanbia) amid pressure on demand and margins for American companies. The Restaurant sector also fell sharply (Darden), particularly in the United States, probably due to pressure on consumers' purchasing power.
In Food Products, we favor ingredient companies that maintain strong sales momentum as well as producers outside the United States, as the U.S. market remains challenging. In Agriculture, salmon farming should benefit from a rise in selling prices in 2026. While salmon production increased significantly in 2025, its growth is expected to be very limited in 2026, supporting the rise in selling prices. The agricultural machinery market has been declining since 2023. After several months of production decline, inventory levels have normalized. The market has therefore stabilized and should reach its bottom in 2026. The European market is even expected to rebound as early as 2026. This should support this segment in the stock market. In the Water and Waste sector, our main positions are in water treatment companies that should benefit from the need to modernize water networks and improve water quality and recycling.