Gold, a global dynamic
Since the beginning of the year, at the end of August, gold prices have jumped by 31%1, after an already very positive year in 2024 (+27%)1. Gold mines have largely amplified this movement, with an increase of more than 85%2 since January. This dynamic has not escaped investors' notice, in this context of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties linked in particular to customs duties, demand remains well oriented3. While gold is known for its role as a safe haven, its appeal also evolves according to the dynamics of each country and the strategies of central banks. How do we understand the issues behind recent market data?
Publshed on 1 September 2025
A changing global gold market
In the second quarter of 2025, total gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year, reaching 1,249 tons. The precious metal is now trading at nearly $3500 per ounce, a price that has almost doubled in three years3! After central banks, this rise is mainly supported by investor flows, attracted by safe havens in a context of geopolitical tensions and persistent economic uncertainty. Financial investments in gold, particularly via ETFs backed by the yellow metal, grew steadily in the second quarter, fuelled by uncertainty over global trade policy and strong prices. Meanwhile, demand for gold bars and coins had its best first half of the year since 2013, highlighting investors' strong appeal to tangible, liquid assets in times of volatility3.
Central bank demand: a key driver, despite a slight slowdown
Central banks, especially those in emerging countries, remain major players in the gold market. They added 166 tonnes of gold to their reserves in Q2 2025, a volume below the recent average but still significant. It should be remembered that central banks bought more than 1000 tonnes of gold per year in 2022, 2023 and 2024, almost double that of the previous decade4. These purchases reflect a strategy of diversification from dollar- denominated assets, driven either by macroeconomic factors or by geopolitical considerations, such as "de- dollarization."
This dynamic confirms a trend observed for several months while Western central banks remain almost absent from the gold market, those in emerging countries, particularly the BRICS, are actively accumulating gold in order to diversify their reserves in the face of economic and geopolitical uncertainty: investors are abandoning the dollar due to expectations of a cut in US rates and concerns about the autonomy of the Federal Reserve.
It should be noted that in a report dated 11 June 20255, the European Central Bank indicates that the euro does not benefit from this search for asset diversification. Indeed, according to market prices, gold's share of global foreign exchange reserves has surpassed that of the euro: the yellow metal now accounts for 20% of central bank assets, compared to 16% for the European single currency.
What are the prospects?
Total gold supply increased by 3%6 due to a slight increase in mining production and recycling. However, despite record prices, recycling volumes remain less reactive than expected, suggesting that holders prefer to hold on to their gold rather than sell it.
For the second half of 2025, investment demand (investment funds, bars, coins) is expected to remain high, although the pace of growth may slow.
Central bank purchases are expected to continue, consolidating the long-term increase in global reserves. On the other hand, demand for jewellery is likely to continue to suffer from the high price effect, while recycling will remain subdued. According to a study of central banks conducted by the World Gold Council7, gold purchases are expected to continue. In fact, 95% of the institutions surveyed expect central bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months. In addition, nearly half (43 per cent) expect their own inventories to grow, up from 29 per cent last year. Better still, none of the central banks surveyed in 2025 expect their gold reserves to decline in the future.
While gold is reaching record highs, is it still interesting to invest in this metal, and especially in gold mines?
Gold remains a strategic asset in a portfolio allocation. We must also consider gold mining, a sector that has been booming in recent months: their performance is directly linked to that of gold, and this dynamism reflects the vitality of the gold market8.
With an average extraction cost of around $1500 per ounce9, the mines are making significant profits with an ounce well over $3000 per ounce. Moreover, and despite their recent performance, they still lag behind that of physical gold over the past 15 years, and their valuation is still close to historical lows10, even if past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Gold confirms its central position as a defensive asset. Now more than ever, demand for gold is driven by a combination of cultural, economic and geopolitical factors and a return to buying by central banks that play a key role in this changing market, while private investors are looking for a safe haven. Among the solutions on this theme, since 2015, CPR Invest Global Gold Mines has been investing in international equities aimed at capturing the growth opportunities of international mining companies involved in the extraction of gold or other precious metals. A fund that provides diversification to portfolios while relying on the expertise of CPRAM's teams on this theme.
1. CPRAM, september 2025
2. Données de l’indice NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index NTR - $) à fin août 2025. Indice fourni par ICE Benchmark Administration Limited qui n’est pas inscrit au registre visé l’article 36 du règlement sur les indices de référence
3. World Gold Council – july 2025 - Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2025.
4. World Gold Council via Agence Ecofin
5. The international role of the euro, World Gold Council, rapport Mars 2025 : la contribution sociale et économique de l’exploitation minière aurifère
6. https://www.gold.org/about-gold/market-structure-and-flows – Gold Market Structure and Flows 10-year average 2015-2024, 2- https://www.gold.org/news-and-events/press-releases/global-gold-demand-hits-new-high-prices-soar-2024
7. In gold we trust – 2025 report
8. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves-survey-2025
9. World Gold Council, février 2025 “l’Or et l’argent”
10. Indice NYSE Arca Gold Miners, CPRAM september 2025
Informations
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