Effective date: 30/09/2026September 2026 was marked by the return of major central banks to monetary tightening: within the space of a week, the ECB, the Fed, and the BoJ all raised their key interest rates by 25 basis points, which is a first for these three central banks in the same month. This move occurred in a context of high energy prices. Indeed, the conflict between Iran and the United States intensified again at the beginning of the month, with attacks on both sides against ships near the Strait of Hormuz.
The materials sector faced several simultaneous headwinds. Gold fell sharply as there was a significant rise in the US 10-year real interest rates of almost 50 basis points and a 2% appreciation of the US dollar against major currencies. Gold producers were heavily sold in September. Copper experienced a volatile month: prices reached a record high at the beginning of the month due to tight supply and tariff expectations, which supported copper stocks, but then fell sharply on September 10 after Reuters reported that the White House had blocked tariffs on refined copper due to concerns about affordability. Lithium stocks were the most affected subsector, penalized by persistent concerns of oversupply and declining political support in China. Fertilizer stocks were impacted by Trump's announcement of a potential potash deal with Belarus.
The energy sector was divided between refiners and upstream/oilfield services. Retail diesel prices in the United States climbed to record levels above $6.50 per gallon, driven by the ongoing war between the United States and Iran disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. This created a strong tailwind for refining margins — the ultra-low sulfur diesel margin reportedly reached about $106 per barrel — which significantly boosted profits and refining stocks until mid-month. However, the rally stopped in the last two weeks, with reports that the Trump administration was preparing a 90-day diesel export ban, triggering massive one-day sell-offs in refiner stocks. Oilfield services and the uranium/nuclear sectors significantly underperformed. Companies exposed to LNG benefited from the energy supply shock, with Shell's final investment decision (FID) on phase 2 of the LNG Canada project (doubling capacity to 28 mtpa) providing a catalyst at the end of the month.
In this environment, the natural resources theme posted a significantly negative performance, far worse than global equities. While the energy sector proved the most resilient, metals and mining were particularly affected. The agriculture sector ranked in the middle of the pack.
In this context, the fund recorded a markedly negative performance, underperforming its benchmark index. Materials were the main detractor from performance, notably through metals and mining including gold miners (Kinross Gold, Agnico Eagle), diversified miners (Solaris Resources, Nouveau Monde Graphite), lithium producers (Standard Lithium, Albemarle), and aluminum (Alcoa). The underexposure to the paper and wood industry, which proved more defensive, was also penalizing. The energy sector also contributed negatively through uranium (Cameco Corp, Nexgen Energy) and the overweight in oilfield services. Conversely, the refining sector and the absence of exposure to pure exploration/production stocks were beneficial.
Regarding portfolio management, a new stock was added to the portfolio: Energy Fuels, which develops uranium and rare earth projects in the United States. Furthermore, the main increases concerned the energy sector, through integrated oil companies Shell Plc, BP Plc, and Chevron Corp, oilfield services including Vallourec, and uranium via Nexgen Energy. Conversely, one stock was removed from the portfolio: Ingredion Inc, in favor of an increase in Bunge Global in agricultural products. Additionally, the main reductions concerned Gold Fields and Newmont Corp among gold miners, Ero Copper in copper, West Fraser in the wood industry, and Stee Dynamics in steel.