Effective date: 31/08/2026Key highlights of the month
In August, the main event was the rise in long-term yields globally, fueled by persistent inflation concerns and renewed fiscal worries. In the United States, the 30-year Treasury yield reached a post-2007 high of 5.31% on August 17; in Germany, the 30-year yield hit 3.81% on August 31, its highest level since 2011; in Japan, the 30-year yield climbed to 4.14% on August 18, its highest level since this maturity was first issued in 1999.
Activity statistics published during the month generally reinforced the idea of a still robust economy. The eurozone flash composite PMI index reached 52.1 in August, its highest level in nine months. At the same time, energy tensions increased inflationary pressures: Brent remained volatile throughout the month and closed around 89 to 90 USD/barrel, after periods of decline linked to hopes of negotiations and then a rebound following geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.
In the United States, headline inflation slowed to 3.4% year-on-year in July; in the eurozone, inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June, driven by energy. At Jackson Hole, Kevin Warsh’s speech was perceived as more hawkish than expected regarding the priority to be given to price stability, which maintained upward pressure on rates. In Europe, the ECB minutes suggested increased sensitivity to rising energy prices, while in Japan several BoJ officials indicated that a faster tightening remained possible.
Equity markets overall held up well in this context of high rates and firm oil prices. The S&P 500 ended the month up about 2.6%, the Euro Stoxx 600 rose slightly by 0.5%, the Topix also advanced; and emerging markets delivered a strong performance, driven by technology stocks.
At the style and sector level, the reading for the month remains clear: growth stocks, and particularly technology, drove the indices, while segments more sensitive to rates suffered more from the rise in long-term yields. The strength of earnings releases and the resilience of activity supported earnings revisions in several cyclical and technology segments, but markets mainly focused on the message of higher long-term rates, which favored selective rotation rather than a uniformly bullish market move.
Note:
In July and August 2026, international biodiversity news is marked by the recognition of the central role of agri-food systems in national strategies, confirmed by a FAO policy brief published for the 2026 International Day for Biological Diversity. Countries are placing these systems at the heart of their action plans, with 36% of planned actions related to this sector, and up to 80% in some countries.
At the same time, the IPBES report on the relationships between business, the economy, and biodiversity emphasizes the need for companies to integrate their impacts and dependencies on nature, a trend supported by the UN Global Compact and WWF.
Summary of the main positions of the month:
We note a slightly negative sector effect, despite a good contribution from Consumer Staples and Technology but negative in the Real Estate and Energy sectors.
The country effect was positive, notably with a good contribution in Europe and Japan but negative in Asia and North America.
We also observe a negative effect from our aggressive factor, with a contribution around -0.07%, and at the same time note a neutral effect from our defensive factor.
The market capitalization size effect was positive, and the effect related to Biodiversity exclusion was positive.
During the review period, we were overweight on the ESG factor and underweight on the dividend yield factor.
At the stock level, we saw very strong contributors to performance such as ServiceNow (OW, 31.8%), Salesforce (OW, 38.6%), Fox (OW, 14.6%), GoDaddy (OW, 17.2%).
Conversely, the following stocks penalized us: eBay (OW, -9.8%), NVIDIA (UW, 8.9%), Western Digital (OW, -18.1%), TJX Companies (OW, -15.4%).
There were no transactions during the month.
Outlook for the following month:
The current market context is increasingly characterized by structural breaks rather than a classic end-of-cycle pattern. Geopolitical tensions, energy disruptions, and technological acceleration are maintaining more persistent inflation, higher public deficits, and more lasting macroeconomic uncertainty than in previous cycles. Investors should therefore not expect a quick return to the calmer environment before 2026, and resilience is becoming a central investment criterion.
Equities remain in a constructive environment, but opportunities are more selective. Markets have shown they can absorb higher long-term rates as long as earnings momentum remains strong and growth expectations are well oriented. Artificial intelligence remains the main structural driver, but the theme is broadening beyond the initial winners to include infrastructure, energy, application software, and associated industrial suppliers, which should strengthen its durability.
Regionally, the United States retains solid fundamentals, but valuations are high and concentration risk remains a concern. Europe appears more attractive on a relative basis, especially when factoring in currency effects, and seems better able to absorb higher energy prices than feared. Financials, industrials, utilities, and certain quality stocks stand out as the best-positioned segments in this context.
Emerging markets also offer opportunities, but with a strong need for selection. Some markets have already been repriced, improving long-term entry points, while China remains a stock-picking market rather than a broad allocation theme. Japan continues to be supported by strong corporate fundamentals, although after its sharp rise, the approach should become more selective. Overall, positioning remains moderately pro-risk, with a focus on diversification, quality, and structural growth drivers rather than the most consensus market names.