CPR Invest - Defensive - R EUR - Acc ISIN : LU1530898334

The month of September 2026 was marked by the return of major central banks to monetary tightening: within the span of a week, the ECB, the Fed, and the BoJ all raised their key interest rates by 25 bps, marking the first time these three central banks have acted in the same month. This move came in a context of high energy prices. Indeed, the conflict between Iran and the United States intensified again at the beginning of the month, with attacks on both sides against ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil thus crossed the $100 mark again on September 9, for the first time since July, before easing slightly to end the month up 16% at $104. It should be noted that both sides appear to have initiated discussions regarding a possible agreement.
 
The inflation indices published in September, covering the month of August, confirmed the divergence between the two sides of the Atlantic. In the eurozone, headline inflation accelerated sharply to 3.2% from 2.9% in July, its highest level since September 2023, driven by a renewed acceleration in the energy component (+14.3% year-on-year). Core inflation, however, slowed slightly to 2.4%. In the United States, headline inflation (CPI) remained stable at 3.4% year-on-year, while core inflation fell to 2.4%, its lowest level since March 2021. Finally, August core PCE inflation came in at 3%, well below expectations, partly due to methodological revisions.
 
Activity indicators once again demonstrated the resilience of developed economies in the face of high energy prices. In the United States, the August employment report was a significant upside surprise, with 162,000 non-farm jobs created versus 53,000 expected and upward revisions for previous months, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%. Second-quarter GDP growth was also strongly revised upward, to 2.2% quarter-on-quarter annualized, compared to 1.5% previously. Similarly, the strength of the September PMI surveys (58.4 for the United States) made an impression and was interpreted as a sign that US growth was stronger than expected. In the eurozone, the composite PMI rose for the fourth consecutive month, to 53.1 in September, its highest level since April 2023, notably with France returning to expansion territory for the first time in ten months. Meanwhile, China continues to stand out, as retail sales grew by only 0.4% year-on-year in August and investment continued to contract (-7.2% over the first eight months of the year), while industrial production remains resilient at 5.2%—but is mainly driven by the technology sector and exports.
 
The ECB raised its key interest rates by 25 bps on September 10, increasing for the second time in three months, with the deposit rate brought to 2.50%. The Governing Council justified its decision by stating that inflation is expected to remain persistently above the 2% target. On September 16, the Fed unanimously raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps, to 3.75/4%, its first rate hike since 2023. Kevin Warsh presented this decision as the "removal of a dose of accommodation" rather than a tightening, while once again emphasizing that he did not intend to provide guidance on future moves. The "dots," i.e., the FOMC members' policy rate projections, indicate another rate hike by the end of the year. Finally, the BoJ raised its main policy rate by 25 bps, to 1.25%, its highest level since 1995.
 
As a result, bond yields rose sharply over the month, due to the combined effect of rising oil prices and monetary tightening. The US 10-year yield gained about 50 bps over the month, ending around 5.28%, its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year yield exceeded 5.60%, a high since 2002. The German 10-year yield rose by about 25 bps, to 3.55%, after reaching its highest level since 2009. In Japan, the 10-year yield crossed the 3% mark for the first time since 1996, ending the month at 3.02%. Finally, gold was penalized by the rise in real rates and lost about 6% over the month, erasing much of its August gains.
 
Equity markets stalled in September, penalized by the rise in long-term rates. The S&P 500 ended the month roughly unchanged (about -0.8%), while the financial sector significantly underperformed (-7.3% for the month, its worst monthly performance since March 2023). The Eurostoxx 600 fell by 2.5%, its first monthly decline in six months. The Nikkei rose by 0.7% over the month, but recorded its first quarterly decline since early 2025. Finally, the MSCI Emerging Markets index edged down slightly (-0.8%), notably weighed down by the Korean and Chinese markets.

The allocation remains focused on risk management, combining measured equity exposure with bond diversification. It is in line with the neutral orientations of the Growth range for equities. On the bond side, interest rate sensitivity remains controlled given the fund's profile. The credit pocket is maintained, with attention paid to issuer quality and refinancing conditions.
 
The resilience of activity and technological investments continue to support earnings prospects, but the cost of capital and energy prices call for a selective approach to equities. On the bond side, higher yields strengthen carry, while inflation and public financing needs limit visibility on long maturities. Credit and emerging debt require careful selection of issuers and refinancing risks. The outlook for gold remains particularly sensitive to real rates, that for energy to supply tensions, and that for currencies to monetary policy differentials.