Effective date: 30/09/2026Performance
In September 2026, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index posted a performance of +1.69%, thus outperforming the MSCI World Index, which rose by +1.05%. The regional indices of the main emerging countries mostly moved lower. Among the strong performers, Taiwan recorded the best performance at +6.48%, followed by Brazil and South Korea at +5.49% and +5.36% respectively. Poland also advanced by +3.58%. Conversely, South Africa and Turkey suffered the largest declines, at -6.83% and -6.78%. Chile, Indonesia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, India, Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand also posted negative performances ranging from -1.12% to -5.45%. China ended the month at -2.40%. Performances are expressed in euros.
Key events of the month
Despite accumulating headwinds, such as developed market yields at historic levels, rising oil prices, and a strengthening dollar, the performance of emerging markets remained relatively stable, supported by the artificial intelligence sector. A global rebound in AI-related trade enabled Taiwan and South Korea to outperform the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The resilience in the technology sector is explained by confirmation of a persistent hardware shortage, likely to worsen until 2027, despite growing concerns about increased regulation of the most advanced AI models. On the macroeconomic front, the yield on ten-year US Treasuries rose by 53 basis points to reach 5.29%, while global developed market yields also increased by 34 basis points. The Fed raised its key rate by 25 basis points at the September meeting and indicated that another hike this year would be appropriate.
Summary of main positions for the month
In September 2026, the fund’s performance stood at +1.21%, compared to +1.69% for the benchmark index.
From a factor perspective, the Alpha Blend factor had a slightly negative impact with a contribution of around -0.04%, while the Defensive Alpha factor showed a neutral contribution at +0.01%. Analysis of the sources of relative performance reveals a positive sector effect, driven by healthcare and consumer staples, but negative in utilities and energy. The country effect is negative, despite a good contribution from South Africa and Taiwan, offset by Brazil and Mexico. The market capitalization size effect is positive.
Among the stocks, ASPEED Technology (overweight, +19%), Mediatek (overweight, +27.8%), Taishin Financial Holdings (overweight, +10.9%), and ASE Technology Holding (overweight, +22.7%) were positive contributors to relative performance. Conversely, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (underweight), King Slide Works (underweight), Tata Consultancy Services (overweight, -11.9%), and RHB Bank (overweight, -11.1%) detracted from performance.
Outlook for the following month
Market outlook for the end of 2026 anticipates a more inflationary and geopolitically fragile environment, without widespread financial risk. Rising tensions in the Middle East between the United States and Iran have pushed up oil prices, reinforcing inflation and central bank caution. Markets have absorbed previous tensions on liquidity, spreads, and security prices returning close to normal. Monetary policies remain restrictive with high rates, as the Fed, ECB, and Bank of Japan continue to normalize or further raise rates. Inflation remains above targets, especially in the United States and Europe, where the risk of a gas shortage weighs on growth. Bond yields remain high and macroeconomic volatility is intense. Investment remains moderately risk-friendly, favoring equities, particularly in the United States, Japan, and resilient European segments, as well as investment grade credit and convertibles. Emerging markets are approached selectively with overweighting of certain countries and caution on the dollar and euro. The rise in spending related to artificial intelligence supports investment and issuance while posing valuation and financing risks.