CPR Invest - Global Silver Age - I EUR - Acc ISIN : LU1291158316

In September, the fund recorded a 0.64% increase, underperforming the MSCI World by 0.36% (+1.00%). This back-to-business month was marked by various macroeconomic events that led investors to favor cyclical stocks, as well as a rebound in China-related equities. These movements negatively impacted the energy and healthcare sectors, the latter representing the majority of the month’s negative allocation effect for the fund. In absolute terms, asset managers were the primary contributors, benefiting from positive momentum and strong stock selection. Additionally, the leisure sector also contributed positively. These two cyclical dimensions acted as buffers against the negative impact experienced by healthcare. Specifically, the leisure sector benefited from lower interest rates, driven by the FED's dovish sentiment, with companies like Lowe's and highly indebted companies like cruise lines performing well. The luxury sector also regained momentum, supported by hopes for a Chinese economic recovery following government stimulus announcements. The healthcare sector acted as a funding pocket for the market, with pharmaceutical companies being the worst contributors for the month. This situation was exacerbated by a significant drop in Novo Nordisk, which suffered from negative news surrounding an oral GLP-1 product in development, as well as disappointing results from AstraZeneca regarding a phase III oncology product. Merck KGaA, despite the end of its research tools destocking, struggled to see a rebound in its sales volumes. Meanwhile, Inspire continued its recovery in healthcare equipment, and Amplifon dropped due to fears of Apple’s entry into the market with its AirPods being positioned as consumer hearing aids. In terms of trades, the fund swapped UnitedHealth for Elevance Health, sold Stellantis (before its decline) over concerns about its U.S. management, increased positions in Whitbread and Hermès (at entry points), and initiated new positions in Pfizer (after it stabilized) and McKesson for diversification.

The major surprise of the month was the announcement of China's stimulus plans. The “China factor” is affecting a large number of sectors in the European stock market, from luxury goods and automobiles to industrials and commodities. While the Chinese government's stimulus plans are a step in the right direction, we believe that, in the absence of more structural reform, they are unlikely to be effective enough to boost the Chinese economy. As a result, we feel that the recent rebounds, particularly in the luxury goods sector, have been too strong. The “Golden Week” figures will also tell us whether the government's confidence-boosting measures are working. We will therefore have to be extremely selective in our stock selection to take advantage of our exposure to China. Then come the US elections. Historically, U.S. markets have gained after the results have been published, the pre-election wait-and-see attitude having by definition disappeared. The outcome of the presidential election, but above all control of the Senate, will give us a better idea of the scenario to follow.  On a lesser scale, in France, we should see high-risk debates on the budget, which may or may not reduce the French “political risk” compared to other European countries. Finally, we'll be eagerly awaiting the earnings season to gauge the impact of poor macro indicators and geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, Middle East) on Q3 corporate results. In this context, it is not certain that the “change of leadership” will be confirmed. Although we have ruled out the hard landing scenario for the time being, the negative impact of each of the previous themes should not be cumulative: a Donald Trump victory, followed by a majority Republican Congress, would lead us to anticipate a rise in customs tariffs (which would upset the Chinese stimulus scenario) and public spending, potentially leading to a return of inflation, and a rise in long-term interest rates, which at a certain level could potentially impact the equity markets, all against a backdrop of more earnings warnings than expected. Against this backdrop, the defensive nature of the silver age strategy would regain its appeal. Indeed, the healthcare sector, which was not a “safe haven” during the summer “air pocket”, could regain its defensive status after the US elections. At the same time, European insurers with a proactive policy of returning cash to shareholders continue to offer high rates of return (>10%).