Effective date: 30/09/2026September 2026 was marked by the return of major central banks to monetary tightening: within the span of a week, the ECB, the Fed, and the BoJ all raised their key interest rates by 25 bps, marking the first time these three central banks have done so in the same month. This move occurred in a context of high energy prices. Indeed, the conflict between Iran and the United States intensified again at the beginning of the month, with attacks on both sides against ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude thus crossed the $100 mark again on September 9, for the first time since July, before easing slightly to end the month up 16% at $104.
The inflation indices published in September, covering the month of August, confirmed the divergence between the two sides of the Atlantic. In the eurozone, headline inflation accelerated sharply to 3.2% from 2.9% in July, its highest level since September 2023, driven by a renewed acceleration in the energy component (+14.3% year-on-year). Core inflation, however, slowed slightly to 2.4%. In the United States, headline inflation (CPI) remained stable at 3.4% year-on-year, while core inflation fell to 2.4%, its lowest level since March 2021. Finally, August core PCE inflation came in at 3%, well below expectations, partly due to methodological revisions.
Activity indicators once again demonstrated the resilience of developed economies in the face of high energy prices. In the United States, the August employment report was a significant upside surprise, with 162,000 non-farm jobs created versus 53,000 expected and upward revisions for previous months, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%. GDP growth for Q2 was also significantly revised upwards, to 2.2% quarter-on-quarter annualized, compared to 1.5% previously. Similarly, the strength of the September PMI surveys (58.4 for the United States) made an impression and was interpreted as a sign that US growth was stronger than expected. In the eurozone, the composite PMI rose for the fourth consecutive month, to 53.1 in September, its highest level since April 2023, notably with France returning to expansion territory for the first time in ten months. Meanwhile, China continues to stand out, as retail sales grew by only 0.4% year-on-year in August and investment continued to contract (-7.2% over the first eight months of the year), while industrial production remains resilient at 5.2%—but mainly driven by the technology sector and exports.
The ECB raised its key interest rates by 25 bps on September 10, increasing them for the second time in three months, with the deposit rate brought to 2.50%. The Governing Council justified its decision by stating that inflation is expected to remain persistently above the 2% target. On September 16, the Fed unanimously raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps, to 3.75/4%, its first rate hike since 2023. Kevin Warsh presented this decision as the "removal of a dose of accommodation" rather than a tightening, while once again emphasizing that he did not intend to provide guidance on future moves. The "dots," i.e., the FOMC members' policy rate projections, indicate another rate hike by the end of the year. Finally, the BoJ raised its main policy rate by 25 bps, to 1.25%, its highest level since 1995.
As a result, bond yields rose sharply over the month, due to the combined effect of rising oil prices and monetary tightening. The US 10-year yield rose by about 50 bps over the month, ending around 5.28%, its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year yield exceeded 5.60%, a high since 2002. The German 10-year yield rose by about 25 bps, to 3.55%, after reaching its highest level since 2009.
€STR swap levels are up by 10 bps for the 3-month swap at 2.52% and by +27 bps for the 1-year swap at 2.98%.
Spreads for bank issuers on the NeuCP money market remained stable over the month. Spreads for French banks show average levels of ESTR +34 bps for one-year maturities and ESTR +24 bps for six-month maturities, stable compared to the previous month.
Issuance rates for Corporate issuers stand at +270 bps for 3-month maturities, a sharp increase over the month, representing an average spread vs 3-month ESTR Swap of +17.5 bps.
At the end of September, the fund shows an average life (WAL) of 157 days, down 2 days over the month. The fund's interest rate sensitivity (WAM) stands at 5 days, stable over the month.
Liquidity and Money Market UCITS represent 23% of the fund, up over the month. Exposure to bank issuers stands at 69%, down 3% over the month, while exposure to Corporate issuers stands at 6.4%, stable.
Over the month, we invested €2,300 million, including €1,700 million in Financials and €600 million in Corporate issuers. The WAL of investments for the month (excluding JJ) is 275 days, down compared to the previous month.
The fund's average ESG rating stands at C, above its investment universe after excluding the bottom 30% of issuers.