Effective date: 30/09/2026Key highlights of the month
The month of September 2026 was marked by the return of major central banks to monetary tightening: within the span of a week, the ECB, the Fed, and the BoJ all raised their key interest rates by 25 bps, marking the first time these three central banks have done so in the same month. This move came in a context of high energy prices. Indeed, the conflict between Iran and the United States intensified again at the beginning of the month, with attacks on both sides against ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil thus crossed the $100 mark again on September 9, for the first time since July, before easing slightly to end the month up 16% at $104. It should be noted that both sides appear to have initiated discussions regarding a possible agreement.
The inflation indices published in September, covering the month of August, confirmed the divergence between the two sides of the Atlantic. In the eurozone, headline inflation accelerated sharply to 3.2% from 2.9% in July, its highest level since September 2023, driven by a renewed acceleration in the energy component (+14.3% year-on-year). In the United States, headline inflation (CPI) remained stable at 3.4% year-on-year. Activity indicators once again demonstrated the resilience of developed economies in the face of high energy prices. On September 16, the Fed unanimously raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 3.75/4%, its first rate hike since 2023. Kevin Warsh described this decision as the “removal of a dose of accommodation” rather than a tightening. Finally, the BoJ raised its main policy rate by 25 bps to 1.25%, its highest level since 1995.
As a result, bond yields rose sharply over the month, due to the combined effect of higher oil prices and monetary tightening. The US 10-year yield rose by about 50 bps over the month, ending around 5.28%, its highest level since 2007. Equity markets stalled in September, penalized by the rise in long-term rates. The S&P 500 ended the month roughly unchanged (about -0.8%), while the financial sector significantly underperformed (-7.3% for the month, its worst monthly performance since March 2023).
Summary of the main positions of the month
Over the month, the fund posted a performance below that of the benchmark index.
We note a positive sector effect, particularly a good contribution from Technology and Finance but a negative one in the Communication Services and Real Estate sectors. The country effect was neutral, with a good contribution from Emerging Markets and Europe but negative in Asia and Japan.
We also observe a positive effect from our blend factor, with a contribution of around 0.46%, and at the same time note a positive effect from our defensive factor, showing a contribution of 0.22%. The market capitalization size effect was negligible.
During the review period, we were overweight on the blend factor and underweight on the volatility factor.
At the stock level, we had very strong contributors to performance such as NetApp (OW, 19.7%), KLA (OW, 17.7%), ASML Holding (OW, 10%), Analog Devices (OW, 15.6%).
Conversely, the following stocks penalized us: Meta Platforms (UW, 30.9%), Expedia Group (OW, -14.6%), Autodesk (OW, -15.7%), Advanced Micro Devices (UW, 34.9%).
There were no transactions during the month.
Outlook for the following month
Regarding market outlook, the main message is that the end of 2026 is heading towards an environment more exposed to inflation and more fragile on the geopolitical front, without signaling a generalized financial risk. The main driver is the resurgence of tensions in the Middle East between the United States and Iran, which has pushed up oil prices, increased inflationary pressures, and made central banks more cautious. At the same time, several reports indicate that markets have largely absorbed previous episodes of liquidity stress, with spreads and ETF prices returning to near-normal levels, while most fund and issuer safety margins remain healthy.
In terms of monetary policy, the dominant expectation is for sustainably higher rates, even if the trajectory varies by region. The Fed, ECB, and BoJ are all described as restrictive or in a normalization phase, with some sources even mentioning further rate hikes in September 2026. This outlines an environment in which bond yields remain high, the traditional role of sovereign bonds as a “safety net” in the event of a recession is weaker, and macroeconomic volatility is expected to remain high.
Despite these headwinds, the investment outlook remains moderately risk-on, particularly for equities and credit. Global equities are generally viewed positively, with a preference for the United States and Japan, and in Europe for segments less exposed to weak consumption. At the sector level, banks, industry, information technology, value style, and quality are favored, while real estate and consumer sectors appear less attractive.