Effective date: 30/09/2026Global equity markets experienced a difficult September, with energy-related inflationary pressures and rising bond yields weighing on investor sentiment across all regions. Central banks adopted increasingly restrictive stances, while investment in AI remained a key driver of equity performance, alongside growing concerns about infrastructure constraints and security risks. Political volatility and geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in Iran continued to cloud the outlook.
US equities ended September mostly lower; the Russell 2000 index posted its largest monthly decline since March 2025, and the DJIA saw its steepest drop since the start of the year. Markets were influenced by the Fed’s first rate hike in three years, with hawkish comments following the meeting reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening. Key economic indicators surprised to the upside: nonfarm payrolls reached 162,000 (versus a consensus of around 55,000), core retail sales jumped 1.4%, and the September composite PMI hit its highest level since July 2021. However, price pressures intensified amid severe supply chain bottlenecks. Third-quarter earnings growth was expected to reach nearly 30%, extending a streak of eight consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. The AI segment significantly outperformed, driven by the momentum of “agentic” (autonomous) AI.
European equity markets posted their first monthly decline in six months, pressured by high energy prices and rising yields. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points with a hawkish tone and revised its inflation forecasts, with the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) not expected to return to its 2% target before the end of 2027. Despite these headwinds, eurozone GDP growth for the second quarter was revised upward (to 0.6%), and the composite PMI showed the fastest expansion in over three years. UK indicators were weaker, with slowing PMI readings and consumer confidence remaining fragile. Politically, Germany’s CDU underperformed in regional elections, raising questions about Chancellor Merz’s future, while French political risk intensified, with the yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds reaching its highest level since 2012.
CPR Hydrogen underperformed the markets by 2.5% in September with a return of -1.4% versus +1.1% for the MSCI ACWI. The absence of technology stocks, supported by the rise of agentic AI, cost -180 bps, while the backlash against infrastructure development penalized industrial stocks, costing -70 bps, and rising interest rates weighed on utilities, costing -90 bps. The absence of financials, penalized by rate hikes, only partially offset these losses (+65 bps). Notably, CATL underperformed (-18%), hit in China by the introduction of a new consumption tax on lithium and internationally by strengthened US import bans on Chinese equipment. BYD also fell 11% due to a slowdown and intensifying competition in the Chinese market (price cuts and Geely’s new fast-charging technology), as well as rising geopolitical and regulatory tensions (threats of additional tariffs in Europe). Ultimately, while CPR Invest Hydrogen’s performance remained largely positive at the end of September (+14.9%), the fund underperformed international markets by 9% in Q3, giving back slightly more than the outperformance accumulated in the first six months of the year. This reversal in trade momentum for AI infrastructure is mainly linked to strong opposition to their development during the US midterm election campaign.
At this stage, we believe the accumulated underperformance is close to being exhausted because: valuations have returned to reasonable levels, Q3 results will show limited or no impact on the order books of the companies concerned, and above all, these companies will emphasize that the new momentum they are experiencing—which has generally shifted their organic growth from MSG to HSD or even low DD—was triggered by the development of AI infrastructure, but will be sustained by a combination of trends involving energy independence and digitalization, such as: reindustrialization, increased electrification of buildings for heating (heat pumps) and cooling (air conditioning), and electrification of the vehicle fleet (accelerated by rising diesel prices). For these deep and lasting reasons, while the first wave of acceleration (linked to AI infrastructure) has passed and normalization has followed, a new wave—perhaps less strong but more durable—will follow.